Understanding COVID-19: Episode 11 – Mitigation Strategies

By Bob Arnot, M.D., sponsored by DeVry University

April 2, 2020
2 min read

Looking at all of the information we have, Dr. Arnot discusses successful mitigation strategies. Our current R naught value is 3.8, meaning for every infected person we have, they are then passing the virus to an additional 3 people. But, if we quarantine at home, we can bring that R value down to 1.2. Centralized quarantine is the only effective measure proven at the end of March 2020 that may bring the R naught value down to <1 where the virus will either mutate or die out.

Video Transcription

Now let’s pull all this together and look at successful mitigation.

Here you can see an increase in new cases reported with an R naught as high as 3.8, meaning every individual infects up to 3.8 others. Now with a quarantine at home and a traffic ban, the R value decreased to 1.2, blunting the curve and spread in Wuhan.

Centralized quarantine is the only truly effective measure proven as of the end of March 2020. You can see blunting with the R value changing from 3.88 to 1.2, and then a steady drop in cases as the reproduction rate dropped to 0.3.

This chart shows the R naught value alone with a drop from an extremely infections 3.88 to 0.32 in effect ending the epidemic in Wuhan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are those of the author. The content is intended to provide general information on the nature of the pandemic, potential exposures, and is not intended to provide medical advice or address medical concerns or specific risk circumstances. Always seek the advice of your doctor or other qualified health provider regarding a medical condition. Neither DeVry University nor its employees or business partners, nor any contributor to this content, makes any representations, express or implied, with respect to the information provided herein or to its use.

View the prior episode, Understanding COVID-19: Episode 10 – Controlling the Spread

View the next episode, Understanding COVID-19: Episode 12 – Transmission of Coronavirus