By Bob Arnot, M.D., sponsored by DeVry University
Looking at all of the information we have, Dr. Arnot discusses successful mitigation strategies. Our current R naught value is 3.8, meaning for every infected person we have, they are then passing the virus to an additional 3 people. But, if we quarantine at home, we can bring that R value down to 1.2. Centralized quarantine is the only effective measure proven at the end of March 2020 that may bring the R naught value down to <1 where the virus will either mutate or die out.
Now let’s pull all this together and look at successful mitigation.
Here you can see an increase in new cases reported with an R naught as high as 3.8, meaning every individual infects up to 3.8 others. Now with a quarantine at home and a traffic ban, the R value decreased to 1.2, blunting the curve and spread in Wuhan.
Centralized quarantine is the only truly effective measure proven as of the end of March 2020. You can see blunting with the R value changing from 3.88 to 1.2, and then a steady drop in cases as the reproduction rate dropped to 0.3.
This chart shows the R naught value alone with a drop from an extremely infections 3.88 to 0.32 in effect ending the epidemic in Wuhan.
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